تشکر از شما بازدید کننده گرامی ، پایگاه نقدی بر اقتصاد ایران، در بخش باشگاه اقتصادی امروز خود برگزیده ترین اخبار اقتصادی ایران و جهان را منتشر می نماید.
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Driving Interest Rates -- September 2008: High Volatility Due to Extraordinary Government Measures Taken to Support the Credit Market September was a particularly volatile month for the financial markets. The average daily price change for the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note was 25/32 (plus or minus). Yet, while the note's yield moved through a 46 basis point range during the month, it finished just 1 basis point above were it began. The Labor Day holiday kept some bond traders out of the market in the first week of the month and light volumes increased volatility. An early, technical bounce in stocks, aided by a sharp drop in oil futures, eventually faded and turned into a loss as the manufacturing index for August came in lower than expected and July's report on construction spending indicated ongoing contractions. The turnaround in stocks helped lift Treasuries and they made substantial gains. They fell back somewhat the next day but rallied the following day as stocks experienced a sharp sell off on weak sales reports from auto dealers and several major retailers. Treasuries fell back again on the first Friday of the month despite a weak employment report for August. The report showed more payroll losses than expected and the unemployment rate jumped to its highest level since September of 2003. However, the previous day's stock losses cushioned the blow there and the market held steady. This took support away from Treasuries and they fell sharply. The wild gyrations continued the next week. Treasuries began Monday the 8th deep in the red in response to Sunday's news that the secondary mortgage marketing agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, had been placed under government control. Freddie Mac, originally named the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, and Fannie Mae, originally the Federal National Mortgage Association, were hybrid companies, established by the government but run as private corporations known as government sponsored enterprises (GSEs). The agencies purchase loans from approved lending institutions, create mortgage backed securities, and sell the securities in the financial markets. Servicing of the loans is handled by the primary lending institutions or servicing companies. A portion of the securities are held by the agencies themselves. They also issue their own corporate bonds to raise capital. |
Right now there’s some very real downside risk to the stock market if there’s no hint of new quantitative easing at either the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole meeting at the end of the month or the Fed meeting in September. The minutes of the last Fed meeting show hat many members want QE3, so they will in all likelihood announce yet more easing because that’s the only tool they’ve got left in their box. They are like someone who has only one tool — a hammer — and so they use that tool for all situations. The world is like a nail, and so they are certainly going to ease. They can’t lower rates anymore, so that’s what they’ve got to do.Hedge fund managers say there’s the probability of a melt up in the gold price if there is any move toward quantitative easing at either event, and gold has already started moving upwards, which is why I’m writing.
Complicating matters, on September 12, Germany’s Supreme Court will decide whether Germany can continue to put funds in the Euro stability pact, bailout programs, and thus whether there will be a Euro bond program and whether the Bundestaag will lose control of their own government. How the court decides can affect the future of the Euro because Germany is holding everything together, and if Germany is no longer there then there is no Euro. The effects will be tremendous.
Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, in their excellent “This Time It’s Different,” wrote a book that should become a guide for all future policy makers. They examined the fate of countless nations in various types of financial crisis (internal defaults, external defaults, banking crises, exchange rate crises and inflation crises) and charted out the typical pattern of distress. They found that the unwinding of a financial caused boom usually entails declines in real housing prices (housing usually declines 35% over six years or more), bear markets in stock prices (which typically decline 56% over three and a half years or more), exploding government debt (usually an average of 86%), falling output, rising unemployment rates, collapsing tax revenues and spiking interest rates. What happens depends upon the type of crisis that occurs, with Reinhart and Rogoff finding that banking crises typically lead to sovereign debt defaults (there have been 250 cases globally since 1800), and sovereign defaults typically lead to inflation (greater than 20% per year) and currency collapses
تشکر از شما بازدید کننده گرامی ، پایگاه نقدی بر اقتصاد ایران، در بخش باشگاه اقتصادی امروز خود برگزیده ترین اخبار اقتصادی ایران و جهان را منتشر می نماید.
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